Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 35.743975 38.665321 41.856883 45.629737 50.004174 54.962264 61.074251
2025-05-25 30.988779 34.754539 39.135442 44.698654 51.713713 60.471699 72.594904
2025-06-01 28.131828 32.263036 37.263781 43.922082 52.823899 64.763597 82.901918
2025-06-08 25.840900 30.101909 35.407116 42.719801 52.940701 67.454747 91.312934
2025-06-15 25.019623 29.639824 35.571951 44.073061 56.584671 75.628452 110.308407
2025-06-22 23.801831 28.534406 34.745925 43.904850 57.922105 80.462486 125.231356
2025-06-29 22.566235 27.299701 33.618458 43.146214 58.193842 83.524966 137.847454
2025-07-06 21.325535 25.971841 32.252646 41.883952 57.466876 84.665831 146.831757
2025-07-13 21.007040 25.869588 32.582308 43.175004 61.049452 94.353645 180.423448
2025-07-20 20.591550 25.598245 32.635603 44.022133 63.976524 103.510011 219.412280
2025-07-27 20.134602 25.235816 32.519846 44.570882 66.430963 112.344280 265.857639
2025-08-03 19.513829 24.602997 31.953650 44.316575 67.333644 117.936648 307.201944
2025-08-10 18.790938 23.807475 31.122386 43.595818 67.339070 121.673620 347.691443
2025-08-17 18.086536 23.010362 30.248596 42.738746 66.979356 124.486348 389.626566
2025-08-24 17.467895 22.312079 29.489163 42.017598 66.801496 127.776138 442.297438
2025-08-31 16.804111 21.520553 28.544522 40.900044 65.657487 128.106706 477.958353
2025-09-07 16.703308 21.562773 28.914832 42.157834 69.788261 145.411559 723.079577
2025-09-14 16.312578 21.149563 28.530798 42.001592 70.756016 153.342440 940.909101
2025-09-21 15.835821 20.587645 27.878607 41.296578 70.365017 156.579637 1131.422023
2025-09-28 15.292892 19.907461 27.006112 40.122221 68.738489 154.949118 1222.673242
2025-10-05 15.240795 19.978203 27.368386 41.323344 72.990780 177.389414 2746.964795
2025-10-12 15.110195 19.920617 27.511919 42.110534 76.378594 199.048136 10250.930320
2025-10-19 14.935145 19.785828 27.516649 42.620064 79.150203 220.388845 NaN